Risk analysis of CIKR

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Risk analysis of the CIKR being impacted by a natural disaster

CIKR can get affected by various natural hazards that will result in significant impact on different government as well as private sectors. The incapacitation of critical infrastructures such as assets, networks, systems and functions by catastrophes leads to critical adverse impact to the security, public safety, national economic activity and other vital sectors. The destruction of public or private core resources leads to significant operation disruption of the government and economy.

Various natural hazards that may impact the CIKR include floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, winds and storms, fires, tsunamis, tornadoes, etc. The occurrence of these disasters varies; however, most of the natural hazards are least likely in most of the locations. The consequence of these hazards is usually high. Therefore, catastrophes get known as low-likelihood high-impact incidents. Catastrophe modeling gets employed in evaluating the likelihood that hazards will take place, the potential consequences if they occur and the distribution of the absolute and relative risk in carrying places and times. Natural disasters can impact the systems and networks leading to disruption of operations and an extended downtime. Natural catastrophes also result in the destruction of transportation networks and infrastructures such as roads and bridges and also damage sewerage and drainage lines and gas supply and electric lines.

Risk analysis of the CIKR being impacted by terrorism

Terrorism and other man-made hazards affect CIKR resulting in devastating consequences. Terrorist activities lead to unwanted outcomes in the business as well as pose a significant threat to lives, property, and other assets. Terrorism has an impact on the market in the long-term by the apprehension felt by investors. Terrorist attacks such as chemical, biological, radiological and explosives can affect organizations leading to significant loss and disruption of government and businesses. These types of terrorism can take place in any location as terrorist focus on inflicting harm to people thus disrupting the functions of organizations. Terrorist activities have varying probabilities depending on the country and surrounding location. Terrorist attacks have infrequently occurred compared to accidents and natural hazards, thus making it difficult to use historical patterns of their occurrence to guide homeland security policy (Willis, 2007). The RMS probabilistic terrorism model gets used to estimate terrorism threat through relying on expert judgments of several factors that could influence a terrorist’s affinity to attack certain targets using particular attack modes. The factors considered are the relative likelihood that a particular city will be attacked, a particular target will be attacked, a specific target will be attacked due to its inherent security value and that any particular attack mode will get employed in the attack. Terrorist acts have adverse impacts on the nation’s economy in which they occur as well as affect individuals and businesses in varying ways. Terrorist acts lead to loss of lives, destruction of critical infrastructures, destruction of buildings and loss of business revenue and in search of medication for injuries caused by the event. Terrorist activities also create fear among the citizens of a nation that is attacked. Terrorist acts also disrupt the operation of the government and businesses and produce cascading impact far beyond the affected CIKR sector and physical location of the event (Alpas, 2010).

Risk analysis of the CIKR being impacted by technological event

Technological events influence CIKR causing a significant impact. Technological events that may occur include cyber security breaches, loss of database, errors due to software or hardware failure or human mistake, etc. Technological events affect the networks and system in organizations thus disrupting the critical functions. The likelihood of the occurrence of technological events as well as its impact on normal operations is dependent on the level of reliance on computing systems. The occurrence of technological events leads to loss of vital company database, interruption of processes in business, loss of competitive advantage of a business and also the loss of information assurance in business.

Qualitative Risk-Level Analysis Matrix

The risk analysis of CIKR being impacted by a natural disaster, terrorism and technological events get represented in a qualitative representation of the likelihood and consequence. Qualitative representation of the likelihood of the events gets classified into certain, likely, possible, unlikely, rare and extremely rare, and the qualitative representation of the impact get grouped into insignificant, minor, moderate, major, and catastrophic (Bullock, Haddow & Coppola, 2012). The qualitative risk level analysis of natural disasters are certain catastrophic events, terrorist acts are likely catastrophic events, whereas technological events are possible-insignificant events.

Emergency management of terrorism

The emergency management of various disruptive and destructive events that impact CIKR by the Department of Homeland Security follows a four-phase cycle that entails mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery (Oliver, Marion & Hill, 2014). Mitigation efforts focus on addressing the likelihood of an event and the consequences. Preparedness refers to the efforts that help disaster team in preparing for any emergency. It includes plans for activities, programs, and systems so as to minimize death, injuries, financial losses, disruption of business processes and property damage. Response refers to all measures and interventions taken on the onset of an emergency to save lives and protect property. Recovery is the last phase and entails measures taken to restore the infrastructure and the social and economic underpinnings of a community to a state of normalcy. The protection of the country’s CIKR is a crucial element of the homeland security mission of making the US safer, more secure and more resilient from terrorist attacks and other natural and manmade catastrophes. Protection of CIKR entails actions to guard CIKR assets, networks, systems or other interconnecting links from exposure, injury exploitation, damage and incapacitation as well as deterrence, mitigation or neutralization of consequences and threats associated with terrorism.

Terrorism is a critical challenge facing the nation since the occurrence of individual event results in catastrophic consequences that include the loss of people, property, and revenue. It is hence necessary for the government to undertake measures and efforts to mitigate, prevent, respond and recover from terrorist events.

Various mitigation and protection measures may get employed as defense strategies against extreme adverse impacts of terrorism. Intelligence sharing, as well as linkage resulting to other law enforcement activities, would be a significant measure in preventing terrorism. It may include infiltration the police of the infiltration of the terrorist cell thus preventing a planned attack. It is crucial for the government to enhance border security and patrol as well as enhance immigration process hence thwarting terrorist travel. The government should also prevent the availability and acquisition of weapons of mass destruction. The United States should continue supporting the Cooperate Threat Reduction Program that aims at safeguarding weapons of mass destruction and other highly dangerous materials. The integration of high-tech scanning devices to detect weapons of mass destruction such as explosives would be a significant approach towards preventing terrorist acts. The financial strength and flexibility of terrorist organizations should be prevented through preventing their access to financial services and collaboration with other agencies and people.


Alpas, H. (2010): Food Chain Security Pilot Study: Findings and Recommendations (pp. 1-10). Springer Netherlands.

Bullock, J. A., Haddow, G. D. & Coppola, D. P. (2012): Introduction to Homeland Security: Elsevier

Oliver, W. M., Marion, N. E., & Hill, J. B. (2014): Introduction to Homeland Security. Jones & Bartlett Publishers.

Willis, H. H. (2007): Terrorism risk modeling for intelligence analysis and infrastructure protection (Vol. 386). Rand Corporation.

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